Initial returns, representing 120,776 VBM Ballots, have Councilman Antonio Villaraigosa with a 51.42 to 48.58 lead over Mayor James K. Hahn.  These ballots make up 8.22 percent of the overall electorate.

I'm in D.C. and have to be in Richmond early tomorrow.  Anyone want to keep the results rolling?

L.A. City Clerk

This mornings news brings more rain for Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger's parade. Forty drops worth, in the "Approve" column. That's right; the untouchable movie-star governor with an adoring public and possible Constituion-altering presidential aspirations has seen his poll numbers drop precipitously, to forty per cent. That is a twenty point walloping since the year begins.

MercuryNews.com | 04/28/2005 | Support falling for governor, poll finds: "What once seemed unthinkable has now become a reality: Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's approval ratings have plummeted to Gray Davis levels, and the cornerstone of his ``Year for Reform'' agenda is on shaky ground.

In 90 days, Schwarzenegger's popularity has tumbled 20 points and potential voters are now voicing doubt about the state spending restrictions the Republican governor wants them to approve in a special election this fall.

Forty percent of Californians believe that Schwarzenegger is doing a good job and half say he's faring poorly, according to the non-partisan survey by the Public Policy Institute of California released today.

The numbers suggest that the governor's attempt to get back on the offense by jettisoning his contentious pension-overhaul plan so he could focus on other proposals has so far failed. Now some Republican strategists are suggesting that Schwarzenegger consider abandoning the special election.

``When the governor's advisers laid out the special election based on reform, they were counting on a very popular governor to carry a load of fairly complicated ballot measures across the finish line,'' said Republican strategist Dan Schnur. ``In this context, it may be hard for him to pull off an initiative load this fall.''

But there are few indications that the governor plans to back down. Wednesday, Schwarzenegger's political advisers met with top Republican lawmakers to discuss campaign strategy. Margita Thompson, the governor's press secretary, said the governor's approval ratings and support will rise once they begin a more aggressive campaign.

``The governor still believes that we need change and we need it as soon as we can,'' she said."

It seems that voters agree that a change may be in order. I don't think it is a change that Arnold would like, however. The governor's aides may be on the receiving end of a "change" themselves. Hopefully they do a better job convincing the Governor of their worth than he is of convincing the voters of his.

Blogger Regulations: Paid Bloggers

Wednesday, Atrios weighed in on one area of the pending F.E.C. regulations regarding blogging, online campaigning, and the internet.

What amazes me about all of this talk about the FEC and bloggers is that seemingly sensible people think it's important to place disclosure requirements on bloggers which apply to no one else in the universe. That is, they want to make legal disclosure requirements for some idiot with a web page, which wouldn't apply when that idiot appears on television or writes an op-ed or hosts a radio program or anything else.

He was writing in great part to respond to Rick Hasen, author of Election Law Blog, who posted a follow up to his article, "The Ripple Effects of the FEC's Rules on Political Blogging" on FindLaw's Writ. You can find the follow-up/correction post, here.

In the FindLaw article, Hasen contends that the law of unintended consequences (which often gets the edge on campaign finance law) will open a loophole in the evolving media landscape which will allow former banned groups to become free to participate in and hold greater influence over the electoral process.

The blurring of the line between journalists and others, particularly bloggers, is having ripple effects in the world of campaign finance. And, although most people don't realize it yet, the effects could be so large as to effectively end a century-old limit on corporate and labor union participation in politics. What likely will take the place of that limit is a new legal regime where the only regulation of independent political speech is disclosure of funding sources.

While some of what Hasen says holds a tone of alarmism, I agree that continued blurring between bloggers and the rest of the media is a question that merits careful consideration and definition.

In his post, Atrios poses the question,

"Why is blogging so goddamn special that it needs to be singled out in this way?"

By "this way" he means the legal (as opposed to ethical) requirement to disclose payments, which he says apply to "no one else in the universe."

Blogs became special by the blogswarm that occurred when the first notions of F.E.C. internet regulation became public. In demanding that blogs be exempted from the rest of the media spectrum, the internet community (and blogosphere, specifically) asked to be "goddamn special."

Montana and Arizona are two states which people see as part of a "Western Strategy" for the Democratic Party. I think those who are coming down on the side of a "50-State Strategy" are more on the right track, but that would include these states as well. Both now have Democratic Governors, both have Senate races coming up that look promising. So, when I saw two stories come my way about interesting campaign finance issues happening in the west, I thought they'd be a nice thing to throw up at my own blog (http://blog.loyaloppositionresearch.com) and here at MyDD.

Starting today, Tuesday the 15th, the Federal Election Commission is sponsoring its conference/training on campaign finance law.  Included in the program are two sections which could prove fortuitous for the blogosphere.  On Wednesday, there are roundtable discussions at lunch with different representatives from the Commission at various table covering specific areas of the law.  On Thursday, the afternoon session includes a discussion of "New Developments in Federal Campaign Finance Law."

While not specifically mentioned in the schedule, mentions of new internet rules have already come up in today's starter session, and the topic will certainly rise again.  Staff, analysts, attorneys and Commissioners will be attending the event and partaking in the discussions.

If you have questions or comments feed them to me, and I will see where I can work them in.  I'll bring the answers back here in a more developed diary for anyone who wants to read up on the conference and what changes are here and on their way.

Let me hear `em!

http://blog.loyaloppositionresearch.com

Never posted to the diaries before. Feels good. Sorry that this is already up somewhere else a comment. A P's and Q's briefing is welcomed if you want to give it. From Orlando, Jerome said a lot of the talk was about "the money" and that raising the money wasn't so much a problem as the DNC's allocation of it to the states. When you've been financially outgunned for as long as time can remember, you get used to worrying about "the money."

As has been posted here, and talked about everywhere, this cycle was the FIRST TIME we matched and bested the R's in the dollar-sign category.  And while it was a coup and a great success, built upon laudable grassroots giving, who knows if it will happen again in two or four years.  Much of the money could well have been ABB-bucks, or the internet interest could dry up the next time around.

One successful cycle of fundraising is not necessarily a predictor of flush balances for the future.

The republican turnout success could easily turn into a regained fundraising advantge.  This year, they worried about turning out their underperforming W.C.E. base at the polls.  Now they can go to them and say, "You did it!  But, now the Democrats are out fundraising us.  Can you spare a few bucks?"

They built their money machine for thirty years.  Let's not get to cocky about one good year.

As for money into/out of state parties, here's my two cents.